Equity Analysis
Australian ASX 200 Stock Index
Market Overview
The Australian Securities Exchange 200 Index rose 110 points, or 1.3%, on Monday to close at 8,914, extending the strong performance from the previous session and reaching its highest level in seven weeks. Market sentiment was lifted by a strong rebound in U.S. equity-index futures after Washington and Tehran reached a preliminary peace agreement and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Domestically, traders are looking ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate decision on Tuesday, with rates expected to remain unchanged following softer domestic economic data and three rate hikes since the start of the year. Meanwhile, May activity data from China, Australia’s key trading partner, will also be released, including industrial production, retail sales and unemployment figures.

Gains were broad-based, led by non-energy materials, industrial services, logistics and financials. BHP rose 3.6%, while Rio Tinto gained 2.6%. Sigma Healthcare surged 6.4% after ending talks to acquire Boots in the United Kingdom. The four major banks advanced between 1% and 3%. Energy stocks underperformed, with Woodside down 5.1% and Santos down 7.4%.

Sector Performance
Top performers:

Materials / Mining: The sector rose 4.17% on the day, making it the strongest area of the market. It benefited from simultaneous gains in iron ore, copper and gold, a weaker U.S. dollar, and improving expectations for Chinese demand.

·         Major miners: BHP +3.58%; Rio Tinto +2.71%; Fortescue (FMG) +3.02%.

·         Leading gold stocks: Vault Minerals (VAU) +14.96%, the strongest performer in the ASX 200; Regis Resources (RRL) +14.02%, the second-best performer.

Industrials / Industrial Services: The sector strengthened broadly, with logistics, aviation and engineering names performing well. Virgin Australia jumped sharply, with VGN up 12.50%, the strongest performer within industrials.

Financials / Banks: The four major banks rose together, gaining between 1% and 3%, as the market priced in the likelihood that the RBA will keep rates unchanged on June 16. Sigma Healthcare (SIG) gained 6.4% as negative news around the abandoned Boots acquisition was digested and capital flowed back into the stock.

Laggards:

Energy: Energy was the weakest sector, falling 5.58% overall. Brent crude dropped 4.5% as geopolitical risk premiums unwound quickly, triggering broad selling across oil, gas and coal names.

·         Santos (STO) -8.05%

·         Karoon Energy (KAR) -8.40%

·         Woodside (WDS) -5.70%

·         New Hope (NHC) -7.95%

·         Yancoal Australia (YAL) -7.30%

Utilities: Defensive capital rotated out of the sector, with utilities closing down 1.79%. The fading of safe-haven demand put pressure on defensive utility stocks.

Notable Stocks
Top 3 gainers among ASX 200 constituents:

1.    VAU Vault Minerals: +14.96%

2.    RRL Regis Resources: +14.02%

3.    VGN Virgin Australia: +12.50%

Top 3 decliners among ASX 200 constituents:

4.    KAR Karoon Energy: -8.40%

5.    STO Santos: -8.05%

6.    NHC New Hope: -7.95%

Technical Analysis
The ASX 200 closed at 8,914 on Monday, up 110 points or 1.25%, marking its highest close in seven weeks. The market rose broadly, with advancing stocks significantly outnumbering decliners. The key drivers were the U.S.-Iran agreement, the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp decline in international oil prices, stronger risk appetite, and gains in metals and gold prices.

Over the past two sessions, the index has posted two consecutive rallies of more than 100 points. Monday’s candle showed a full real body and a very short lower shadow, indicating strong buying support. The index has clearly moved away from the previous consolidation base near 8,580 and has shifted from a rebound within a downtrend to a short-term rising channel.

The index has moved above the 5-day, 10-day and 21-day short-term moving averages, which are turning upward and forming a bullish support band. The 50-day moving average near 8,720 now acts as strong medium-term support. Turnover reached 910.89 million, confirming that the rally was supported by clear capital inflows rather than a hollow index push.

Technical indicators are constructive. RSI has recovered from low levels to around 62, not yet in overbought territory, suggesting further upside potential without bearish divergence. MACD has seen the daily green histogram disappear and the red histogram expand, while the DIFF line has crossed above the DEA line, reinforcing the bullish signal.

Trading Strategy: Two-way Trading Ideas
The following is a technical trading framework only and does not constitute investment advice. Leveraged trading losses may exceed the initial investment.

Bullish strategy:

·         Conservative long: Consider entering on a pullback into the 8,860-8,880 support zone, with a stop below 8,800. First target: 8,980. A breakout may open the way to 9,020. If the index holds above 9,020, it may test the previous high near 9,100.

·         Aggressive long: Consider a light long position if the index holds above the intraday high of 8,937, with a stop at 8,900.

Bearish strategy, only if price stalls at resistance:

If the index meets resistance in the 8,980-9,022 zone and forms a long upper-shadow bearish candle, short positions may be considered, with a stop at 9,040 and targets at 8,900 and 8,860. Without a clear topping signal, avoid fading the trend prematurely.

Key Risks
·         If the RBA unexpectedly delivers hawkish rate-hike language tomorrow, banks and growth stocks could come under immediate pressure, dragging the index lower.

·         Any renewed deterioration in the U.S.-Iran situation or rebound in oil prices may support the energy sector but also lift inflation expectations, creating structural tension across the market.

·         Weaker-than-expected May economic data from China would directly pressure Australia’s export-oriented resource heavyweights.

·         As the index approaches the psychological 9,000 level, profit-taking could trigger a sharp short-term pullback.

Nikkei 225 Index (JP225)
Market Overview
The Nikkei 225 rose 4.99% on Monday to close at 69,317, setting a new record high. Investors welcomed the breakthrough agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Following the announcement, oil prices fell to a two-month low, easing inflation concerns and reducing cost pressures for major energy importers such as Japan.

At the same time, markets widely expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week to curb inflation and support the yen. Friday’s strong SpaceX debut also boosted broader market sentiment and strengthened investor interest in high-profile growth stories. Technology and AI-related stocks led the advance, with Kioxia up 12%, Murata Manufacturing up 17.6%, SoftBank Group up 10.3%, Advantest up 7.7%, and Tokyo Electron up 7%.

Sector Performance
Top performers, gains above 1%:

·         Taiyo Yuden (6976): Up 22.64% to JPY 19,285. A leading capacitor and electronic-components producer, supported by surging AI-computing demand for components.

·         Ibiden (4062): Up 19.08% to JPY 22,750. A core semiconductor package substrate manufacturer.

·         SUMCO (3436): Up 17.85% to JPY 4,305. The world’s second-largest silicon-wafer supplier.

·         Murata Manufacturing (6981): Up 17.58%. A leading MLCC electronic-components manufacturer, supported by strong demand from AI servers.

·         Taisei Corporation (1801): Up 13.38%. Infrastructure shares also strengthened, while property and banking stocks helped lift the broader market.

Laggards, declines above 3%:

·         CyberAgent (4751): Down 5.06% to JPY 1,295. Capital rotated out of internet advertising and mobile-game growth stocks toward physical technology manufacturing.

·         Kikkoman (2801): Down 3.65% to JPY 1,569.5. Defensive consumer-staples stocks saw capital outflows.

·         Nitori Holdings (9843): Down 3.25% to JPY 2,603. Retail consumption remained under pressure as capital shifted into high-growth technology sectors.

Technical Analysis
The Nikkei 225 closed at 69,317.50 at the start of the week, up 3,297.46 points, or 4.99%, and reached a record closing high. Intraday, it opened at 66,783.22, reached a high of 69,682.23, and recorded a low of 66,783.22.

The key driver was the U.S.-Iran peace memorandum, which sharply reduced geopolitical risk and revived global risk sentiment. The market rose almost unidirectionally throughout the day, with nearly all sectors advancing and trading volume expanding significantly.

RSI (14) is currently around 64, still below overbought territory above 70, leaving room for further upside. MACD is strongly bullish, with the DIF line moving sharply above the DEA line and the red momentum histogram expanding. Volume increased by around 40% from the previous session, confirming the price advance with strong turnover.

The index broke decisively above the previous 67,900 resistance level and formed a breakout gap, a typical acceleration pattern. The candlestick structure was a strong full-bodied bullish candle with almost no upper or lower shadow. The real body exceeded 3,000 points, showing absolute dominance by buyers. On the weekly chart, the index also gapped higher and broke above the previous weekly high, opening further upside potential on the weekly timeframe.

Trading Strategy: Short-term Focus
Bullish strategy:

·         Entry timing: Consider entering if the index pulls back and stabilizes in the 68,000-68,500 zone.

·         Stop-loss: Below 67,000, near the 20-day moving average, keeping risk within 2%.

·         Targets: First target 70,000; second target 70,500.

·         Positioning: Enter with a light position, around 30% of total capital. If the index breaks above 70,000, an additional 20% may be added.

Bearish strategy, with caution:

·         Entry condition: Consider a short only if a clear reversal signal appears near 70,000, such as an evening star or double-top pattern, together with shrinking volume.

·         Stop-loss: Above 70,500, keeping risk within 1.5%.

·         Targets: 68,000 and 67,000.

·         Positioning: Use a very small position, around 10% of total capital, with strict stop-loss discipline and quick execution.

Risk Note
The Nikkei 225 showed an exceptionally strong bullish trend today, with an ideal technical structure, healthy volume confirmation, and a breakout above the 69,000 psychological level that opened a new upside range. In the short term, the index may challenge the 70,000 psychological level, but traders should watch for the Bank of Japan’s rate decision and technical pullback risk. Operationally, buying on pullbacks remains the preferred approach, with strict stop-loss control and disciplined position sizing to avoid chasing at elevated levels.

Currency Analysis
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index fell to around 99.42 on Monday, marking its lowest level in more than a week, after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement that restored passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The development reduced demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. The announcement also pushed oil prices to a two-month low, helping ease concerns over stronger inflation and tighter monetary policy.

The agreement is expected to be signed in Switzerland on June 19 and includes the lifting of blockades, the easing of sanctions on Iran, and the dismantling of Tehran’s nuclear program. Investors are now turning their attention to the first policy meeting chaired by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are also expected to keep policy steady this week, while the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to support its currency.

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index is currently trading near the 99.50 level, while 100.00 carries both psychological and technical significance. Historically, this area served as an important support zone, but it has now fully turned into a key resistance level. The index tested this area several times in March, April, and again recently, but failed to achieve a decisive breakout. However, the broader bullish structure has not yet been invalidated.

For the bullish scenario, the first short-term resistance level is at 99.80, the 9-day moving average, followed by 100.00, a key psychological level. If the index holds above and breaks through these levels effectively, further upside may open toward the key resistance zone at 100.64.

If the Dollar Index meets resistance near current highs and pulls back below 99.16, the May 6 low, while also losing the highly directional 99.00 level, the market will officially weaken. The key support zone is at 98.75, the May 29 low. A decisive break below this support area would trigger a structural reversal, with the index likely to continue setting new short-term lows and enter a phase of bearish momentum.

Trading idea for today: Consider shorting the U.S. Dollar Index at 99.77.

Stop-loss: 99.89

Targets: 99.40 / 99.30

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar rose above 0.7060 against the U.S. dollar, rebounding from its recent two-month low after a modest 0.4% gain last week, as global risk appetite improved following a temporary peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Reports suggested that the agreement includes the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the removal of blockades, and the dismantling of Tehran’s nuclear program.

The development improved sentiment across financial markets. Asian equities rose, the U.S. dollar weakened, and oil prices fell sharply. It also provided some relief for central banks during a busy week of policy meetings. In Australia, markets have fully priced in expectations for a June rate hike, as a series of weak economic data releases reinforced signs that the Reserve Bank’s three earlier rate hikes this year are taking effect. The probability of an August rate hike has also fallen to around 35%, down from more than 80% a month ago. The May CPI report will be released on June 24 and will be closely watched for signs of persistent underlying price pressure.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD has pulled back after an earlier push higher and is now in a consolidation phase. Price has fallen below the short-term moving averages, indicating that short-term upside momentum has weakened. However, it remains above the medium- and long-term moving averages, meaning the broader uptrend has not yet been reversed. Multiple key support levels remain below, while previous highs form clear overhead resistance.

In terms of indicators, the MACD red histogram is gradually narrowing, showing that bullish momentum is continuing to fade. The two MACD lines are beginning to converge, which increases the risk of a short-term pullback. RSI has retreated from high levels into neutral territory, suggesting that buying and selling pressure is broadly balanced, with no clear overbought or oversold signal. Overall, short-term resistance can be watched at 0.7100, a round-number level, and 0.7188, this month’s high. Support can be watched at 0.7000, a key psychological level, and 0.6940, the 150-day moving average.

Trading idea for today: Consider going long on AUD/USD at 0.7050.

Stop-loss: 0.7040

Targets: 0.7090 / 0.7100

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rebounded after a modest decline in the previous session, trading near 1.3450 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair was supported by a softer U.S. dollar as reports of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz helped revive risk appetite.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that U.S. President Donald Trump said his agreement with Iran would ultimately ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains “permanently toll-free.” Bloomberg also reported on Sunday that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to end nearly four months of war, with both sides announcing an immediate and permanent halt to military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon.

The U.K. economy contracted 0.1% month-on-month in April, its first monthly decline since last August. This raised major questions over whether the Bank of England should continue raising rates to fight inflation. Although markets broadly expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, investors will closely monitor earlier inflation and employment data for clearer guidance.

On the daily timeframe, GBP/USD is currently in a range-bound consolidation pattern, with buying and selling pressure broadly balanced. Price continues to fluctuate around levels above 1.3400, while the short-term moving averages are intertwined, offering limited directional guidance. Key resistance is near the previous high at 1.3657, while support is near the previous low at 1.3159. Price is currently trading close to several moving averages, showing an intense battle between buyers and sellers.

Technically, the MACD DIFF and DEA lines are intertwined near the zero line, while the green histogram is only mildly visible, indicating limited momentum from either side. RSI is around 52, within neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold signal. Overall, GBP/USD lacks a clear trend direction and remains range-bound. Short-term resistance can be watched at 1.3500, the upper Bollinger Band, and 1.3576, the April 27 high. Support can be watched at 1.3400 and 1.3342, the lower Bollinger Band.

Trading idea for today: Consider going long on GBP/USD at 1.3400.

Stop-loss: 1.3390

Targets: 1.3450 / 1.3460

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen weakened past 160 per U.S. dollar on Monday, reversing earlier gains, as traders increased short bets on the currency amid ongoing carry-trade activity. Investors continued borrowing the low-yielding yen and investing in higher-yielding currencies. The move reflects the persistent interest-rate gap between Japan and the United States, which continues to outweigh the Bank of Japan’s gradual tightening efforts and Tokyo’s repeated currency intervention.

That said, markets widely expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week in an effort to contain inflation and stabilize the currency. Meanwhile, the yen found some support after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices then fell to a two-month low, easing inflationary pressure and reducing import costs for energy-dependent economies such as Japan.

From a price-action perspective, the pullback after resistance near the 160.60 high has been confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover on the 240-minute chart. The DIFF fast line has crossed below the DEA slow line, while the green histogram has expanded moderately, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

Price is currently trading between the Bollinger Band midline at 160.30 and the lower band at 159.95, staying close to the midline. Given that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing overall, volatility has compressed to a recent low. This suggests that breakout energy is building and that the market is close to choosing a direction.

The upper resistance zone is at 160.30-160.60, from the Bollinger Band midline to yesterday’s high. This area combines the Bollinger midline and short-term psychological resistance. A decisive breakout and hold above the midline would suggest that short-term correction pressure has been released, weakening the bearish pressure from the MACD crossover. However, if repeated upper shadows appear on the hourly chart within this range, traders should watch for signs of momentum exhaustion. The lower support zone is at 159.54, from the Bollinger lower band to Wednesday’s pullback low, followed by the 159.00 psychological level.

Trading idea for today: Consider shorting USD/JPY at 160.45.

Stop-loss: 160.60

Targets: 159.70 / 159.60

EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose during Monday’s Asian session and traded near 1.1600 after a slight decline in the previous session. Reports that the United States and Iran had reached a peace agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz weighed on the U.S. dollar, eased risk aversion, and supported the currency pair.

Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to end nearly four months of war, with both sides announcing an immediate and permanent halt to military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump also announced on social media on Sunday: “The agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran has now been reached. I hereby fully authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.”

Markets are still digesting the European Central Bank’s first rate hike in three years. The move was described as a precautionary measure aimed at curbing broader inflationary pressure caused by surging fuel costs.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD has been in a clear downtrend since its April 2026 high, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, a double-bottom pattern has developed near the 1.15 psychological level, and last Thursday’s bullish engulfing pattern showed active buyer participation. Increased volume during the rebound has provided some support.

The daily stochastic oscillator is recovering from oversold territory but has not yet issued a clear buy signal, meaning the rebound may first enter a consolidation phase. The ATR volatility indicator shows that the trading range has expanded during the event-driven period.

Key technical support is located at 1.1566, the 9-day moving average, to 1.1500, the psychological level. A decisive breakdown of this zone, especially if accompanied by increased volume and bearish candlestick patterns, would invalidate the double-bottom structure and point toward the 1.13-1.14 area, corresponding to early-2026 lows.

Key resistance is at 1.1650, the May high. Only a breakout above this level would invalidate the recent bearish bias toward EUR/USD, weaken the market’s optimistic view on the U.S. dollar, and open the way toward the 200-day moving average at 1.1676 and the 1.1700 psychological level.

Trading idea for today: Consider going long on EUR/USD at 1.1580.

Stop-loss: 1.1570

Targets: 1.1640 / 1.1620

Commodity Analysis
WTI Spot Crude Oil
WTI crude oil opened with a gap lower of more than 4% after the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was completed and set to be signed on June 19. Prices briefly touched a near two-month low at USD 79.25 per barrel and are currently trading around USD 79.65 per barrel. The move was driven by stronger trader expectations that the United States and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement.

A Western source said the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the Gulf conflict could be signed as soon as possible, with Geneva being a potential location. However, Iran’s foreign minister stated that the memorandum has not yet been signed and that its contents may still change. Last Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his threat of airstrikes against Iran, with negotiations expected to focus on nuclear and economic issues.

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent crude price forecast to USD 80 per barrel, citing increased supply and weaker demand, although it expects oil prices to remain above the 2025 average. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for a second consecutive time to 970,000 barrels per day, while raising its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.73 million barrels per day.

International oil prices came under heavy selling pressure at the start of the week. During Asian trading hours, WTI crude briefly fell below USD 80 per barrel, reaching its lowest level in nearly two months. Major signs of easing in the Middle East military conflict, which had lasted for several months, quickly cooled market concerns over disruptions to global energy transportation. As a result, the risk premium built into oil prices was rapidly unwound.

From the daily chart, the previous uptrend in WTI crude, driven by Middle East tensions, has clearly reversed. Prices have quickly broken below several key moving-average areas, showing that market sentiment has shifted from supply concerns back toward fundamental supply-and-demand factors. The USD 80 level has now become an important short-term psychological zone. If prices break clearly below this level, crude may further test USD 78.88, the April 17 low, and then the USD 75 level.

On the upside, USD 82, a round-number resistance level, and USD 85.40, the 100-day moving average, will act as important short-term resistance zones during any rebound. Only a sustained move back above these levels would help ease the current bearish pressure.

Trading idea for today: Consider shorting crude oil at 80.00.

Stop-loss: 80.20

Targets: 78.50 / 78.00

Spot Gold
On Monday, June 15, during early Asian trading hours, spot gold opened more than 2% higher, reaching above USD 4,345 per ounce at one point, and is currently trading around USD 4,310 per ounce. Gold benefited from reduced rate-hike expectations following the completion of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, which is scheduled to be signed on June 19.

Markets remain focused on the U.S.-Iran situation. Reports suggested that both sides could sign a peace memorandum as early as Sunday, although Iran denied such speculation. Traders now price in a 57% probability of a U.S. rate hike before December, after recent data showed U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in May and consumer inflation exceeded 4%. This week’s Federal Reserve meeting on June 16-17 will be the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets broadly expecting rates to remain unchanged. UBS lowered its gold price forecast, warning that a delay in Fed rate cuts could push gold down to the USD 3,850-4,000 per ounce range in the short term.

Overall, the U.S.-Iran peace agreement is undoubtedly the key variable currently affecting the gold market. Through the full transmission chain of falling oil prices, cooling inflation expectations, weaker rate-hike expectations and a softer U.S. dollar, gold has gained strong upside momentum.

In terms of support, the short-term key support level is around USD 4,262, Monday’s low. The previous low near USD 4,024 also forms strong support. The medium-term core support remains the USD 4,000 psychological level, which carries strong historical and technical significance. This is also the final key defensive zone for bulls and may help prevent a deeper decline in gold prices.

On the resistance side, the first short-term resistance level is the USD 4,400 round-number level. The second major resistance level is around the 20-day moving average at USD 4,414. Gold must break through these two major resistance areas and hold above USD 4,500 to reverse the current weak structure and shift the medium-term downtrend.

Trading idea for today: Consider going long on gold at 4,305.

Stop-loss: 4,300

Targets: 4,350 / 4,370