Dollar Index

The dollar index fell below the 100 mark on Monday, erasing last week's gains as investors sought greater clarity on the U.S.-China trade relationship. President Trump reiterated on Sunday that he believed China was interested in reaching a deal, but did not provide specific details or a timeline. Last week, Beijing said it might consider starting trade talks, although it stressed that the United States must first remove all unilateral tariffs as a sign of goodwill. Investor attention also turned to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged amid ongoing trade uncertainty. A stronger-than-expected April jobs report further reduced the likelihood of a June rate cut and reinforced expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance. The market is now pricing in a 37% probability of a June rate cut, a sharp drop from 64% a month ago.

From the recent technical trend, the dollar index is currently sending an overall bearish signal, currently trading around 99.80, and once again fell below the market's psychological level of 100 during the day. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicators of the daily chart is slightly above 40, and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) sends a slight buy signal, indicating divergence. The stochastic indicator %K is 59.25, and the final oscillator is 42.86, which also indicate neutral momentum. As the index fell below the key psychological level of 100 again, the immediate support level is 99.50 of the 9-day simple moving average. Further bearish bias may be strengthened to the 99.00 {round mark}, and 98.90 {last week's low} area level. As for the upside, once the US dollar index re-crosses 100.00 {market psychological level}, and 100.33 {last week's high}, it may aim at 100.72 {23.6% Fibonacci rebound level from 109.80 to 97.91} level.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index at around 99.92, stop loss: 100.05, target: 99.50, 99.40

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil opened at the beginning of the week and jumped to $55.14, the lowest since April 9, down nearly 5.0%. Oil prices narrowed the decline to 1.79% in the European session and are currently trading around $57.00 per barrel as OPEC+ agreed to increase production, raising concerns about global oversupply. OPEC+ will accelerate the increase in oil production for the second consecutive month as the organization's leader Saudi Arabia seeks to punish some member countries that exceed their production quotas. These supply issues overshadowed earlier news that China is considering negotiations with the United States to ease trade tensions between the two economic powers. On the geopolitical front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against the Houthis and take action against "their supporters" Iran after a missile fired by the organization landed near Israel's main airport.

From the daily trend of WTI crude oil, the oil price broke down and fell to $55.14, the lowest since April 9, at the opening, down nearly 5.0%, with shorts in the lead. WTI crude oil prices fell sharply below the previous key psychological support of $60, and are currently trading around $57.00, showing an obvious breakout pattern. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of technical indicators is in the negative zone {latest report 33.30}, while the MACD crosses downward, the momentum column expands, and the RSI falls below the middle axis and approaches the oversold area, suggesting that shorts dominate the market. If it continues to fall, the next target support level is $55.14 {low point at the beginning of the week}, and $55.00 {integer mark}, and if it breaks, it will move towards the low of more than 4 years, $54.78, and $54.00 {integer mark}. If there is a rebound in the future, the short-term resistance is concentrated at $57.45 {last Friday's low} and $58.10 {5-day moving average}. The breakout points to $58.83 {23.6% Fibonacci rebound from 71.98 to 54.78}, and temporarily stops the downward trend.

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil around 56.80, stop loss: 56.60; target: 58.50; 58.70

Spot gold

Gold rose more than 2.80% during the European session on Monday, returning above $3,330 as the dollar was hit hard, despite positive economic data from the United States showing that the economy is still strong. Gold traded at a high of $3,334 after hitting a daily low of $3,237. Traders fled to safe assets after a turbulent geopolitical weekend. The weekend Houthi attack on Ben Gurion Airport and Israel's promise of retaliation and preparations for a major ground offensive in Gaza have again raised risks in the region. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said military action could be an option for the US to take control of Greenland. Gold's appeal increased as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 7. Over the weekend, Trump once again expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell. After calling Powell "stiff," the US president called on Federal Open Market Committee members to pressure Powell to achieve a rate cut.

On Monday, gold prices rose sharply, while the US dollar fell at the start of the trading day. The communication synergy between the two assets appears in the days before the Fed's interest rate decision. Usually, stable or higher interest rates are not good for gold because the interest returns on bonds are more attractive than the returns on gold. On the upside, the first resistance level was broken in the test of $3,316.50 (14-day simple moving average). Further follow-up, the $3,340 mark is the next level of resistance. In the short term, pay attention to the $3,353 level {April 28 high}. On the downside, pay more attention to $3,316.500 (14-day simple moving average), followed by $3,290 (May 1 high), and $3,292.50 {38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 2956.80 to 3,500.10}, and the next support level will be the low at the beginning of the week, which is $3,238.

Today, you can consider going long on gold before 3,329, stop loss: 3,325; target: 3,350; 3,355

AUD/USD

AUD/USD rose to nearly 0.643, a more than five-month high, on Monday. The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar as Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won a second three-year term in the 2025 federal election, with Saturday's federal election results showing a significant victory. Labor leader and Prime Minister Albanese won more than 45% of the votes in Saturday's vote, successfully gaining a majority in Parliament. Albanese became the first leader in decades to be successfully re-elected, defeating opposition leader Peter Dutton of the center-right Liberal-National Coalition. Expectations of policy continuity after Albanese's re-election may boost the Australian dollar in the short term. Attention will turn to the possible improvement in US-China trade relations. However, any signs of escalation between the world's two largest economies may put pressure on the Australian dollar as a proxy for China, as China is an important trading partner of Australia.

At the beginning of this week, AUD/USD showed strong bullish momentum, rising to 0.643, a five-month high. It is currently trading around 0.6470. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart is neutral at 61.40, indicating balanced momentum, while the MACD confirmed the buy signal. The Stochastic RSI Fast (49.55) and the Stochastic %K (79.58) are both neutral. Moving averages continue to reinforce the bullish outlook: 20-day; 100-day; and 200-day simple moving averages all issued buy signals. Therefore, the key support level is 0.6400 {integer level}, and if it breaks, it will test 0.6344 {20-day simple moving average}, and 0.6300 {market psychological level}. As for the resistance level, First, we can focus on the 0.6500{round mark} and the 0.6528 level of the high on November 29, 2024.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6455, stop loss: 0.6445, target: 0.6490, 0.6495

GBP/USD

GBP/USD started the new week with a sluggish attitude, fluctuating narrowly around the area slightly below 1.3300, close to the one-week low hit in the Asian session. The US dollar remained on the defensive below the multi-week high, as the economic uncertainty brought about by US President Trump's tariff plan increased, becoming the main driver of GBP/USD. In addition, the prospect of more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve seems to have further weakened the US dollar. On the other hand, optimism that the Sino-US trade war may cool down has jointly hit the demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, traders seem reluctant to make new bullish bets on the GBP/USD pair, choosing to wait for the key central bank event risk this week: the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Apart from this, traders this week will also be watching the outcome of the two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday, which will affect the price dynamics of the US dollar and provide some substantial impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD rebounded slightly near the low of 1.3260 from the three-year high of 1.3445 last week. At this stage, the overall outlook for the currency pair remains bullish as all short-term to long-term exponential moving averages are trending upwards. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator on the daily chart is struggling to rise back above 58. If the RSI can do this, it will trigger new bullish momentum. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3328{10-day simple moving average}, and a break below it will look towards 1.3400{round mark} and head towards the key resistance level of the three-year high of 1.3445. Looking down, 1.3225{20-day simple moving average}, and the April 3 high of about 1.3200 will act as the main support area. The next level is 1.3164 {April 15 low} and 1.3163 {23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2708 to 1.3445} levels.

Today's recommendation is to go long GBP before 1.3285, Stop Loss: 1.3270, Target: 1.3330, 1.3340

USD/JPY

Cutting some of the modest intraday gains as it entered the American session on Monday helped USD/JPY rebound from levels below 144.00. The dovish pause from the Bank of Japan last Thursday became a key factor restraining yen bulls from making aggressive bets. However, uncertainty about US President Trump's tariffs and re-emerging geopolitical risks continue to support the safe-haven yen for the second day. On the other hand, the US dollar remained below multi-week lows on the backdrop of Trump's erratic trade policy and rising economic uncertainty. This may further limit any meaningful appreciation moves in USD/JPY. Investors may also choose to wait and see ahead of the key two-day FOMC policy meeting starting on Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY struggled to gain traction at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of 145.55 {151.21 to 139.89} last week and was blocked at 145.92 {last week's high}. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-up buying above the 146.00 mark before positioning for a long position to extend the nice rebound from multi-month lows. The spot price could climb to the intermediate resistance of 146.55-146.60 before testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around 146.89. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting that any follow-up break below the 144.00 mark could still be seen as a buying opportunity. This should help limit downside around Friday's swing low, around the 143.75-143.70 area, below which the USD/JPY pair could become vulnerable. The subsequent decline may drag to the 143.00 round mark and the 23.6% Fibonacci rebound level, which is around the 142.56 area.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 143.90, stop loss: 144.10; target: 143.00, 142.80

EUR/USD

EUR/USD started the week weak, trading close to 1.1320. US President Trump confirmed that he will not seek to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell before his term ends in May 2026. In addition, the EUR/USD pair may face resistance from potential trade tensions. Trump announced plans to instruct the US Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on foreign-made films. On Friday, the euro received some support after stronger-than-expected eurozone inflation data. The harmonized index of consumer prices remained at an annual rate of 2.2% in April, slightly higher than the forecast of 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to 3.9% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 2.7%, both above expectations. These data reinforced market expectations for a cumulative 60 basis points of rate cuts by the European Central Bank by the end of the year. EUR/USD continued to rise on Friday, pushing up to the 1.1400 area, with buyers maintaining control in the broader trend. Despite the gains, the underlying momentum remains uncertain, with short-term indicators sending mixed signals. However, the broader technical structure remains positive, with solid positioning of the major moving averages continuing to trend upwards.

From a technical perspective, the pair has an overall bullish bias. The 14-day relative strength index, a technical indicator on the daily chart, hovers around 56.20, still neutral but trending upwards. The moving average convergence/divergence indicator has turned negative, suggesting weakening intraday strength. Moving averages provide trend confirmation. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages are all below the current price and sloping up, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. These levels continue to provide strong dynamic support, while the current immediate resistance is at 1.1381 {last Friday's high}, breaking through this area may lead to further rise to 1.1400 {round mark}, and 1.1473 {April 11 high} area. The first support level is at 1.1300 {round mark}, and if it breaks, it will continue to test the 1.1223 {last Thursday's low}, 1.1200 {round mark} area level.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.1305, stop loss: 1.1290 target: 1.1350, 1.1360.

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