US Dollar Index

The dollar index came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday as investors turned defensive ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The dollar index fell to around 99.25 on Tuesday, marking its third consecutive day of decline as trade uncertainty continued to weigh on investor sentiment. President Trump hinted at a possible reduction in the 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports. On the other hand, Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign film studios and hinted at possible tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the next two weeks. Market participants will now turn their attention to the Fed's policy decision, which is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors will closely watch Chairman Powell's speech, given the political pressure from Trump to cut interest rates. Despite overall weakness, the dollar has recovered against Asian currencies, especially the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit, after selling pressure in recent trading days.

The dollar index is currently trading around 99.50 and is trading in an intraday range of 99.00 {round mark} to 100.33 {last week's high}. Technical indicators on the daily chart remain neutral in terms of momentum, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) around 40.50, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) gives a buy signal. However, the short, medium, and long simple moving averages {20, 100, and 200} all point to a persistent bearish trend. Further exerting downward pressure. The key support level is at 99.40 {last Friday's low}, which may further strengthen the bearish bias to the 99.00 {round mark}, and 98.90 {last week's low} area levels. On the other hand, once the US dollar index re-crosses 100.00 {market psychological mark}, and 100.33 {last week's high}, it may target the 100.72 {23.6% Fibonacci rebound level from 109.80 to 97.91} level.

Consider shorting the US dollar index around 99.38 today, stop loss: 99.52, target: 99.00, 98.80

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 3% to around $58.70 a barrel on Tuesday, ending a two-day decline as tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Israel launched air strikes on the port of Hodeidah and a cement factory in Yemen on Monday in response to a ballistic missile attack by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on Israel's main airport the day before. In the previous trading, WTI crude oil fell 2% due to concerns that OPEC+ decided to accelerate the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the organization, also warned that it would further increase production if overproducing members did not comply. The additional supply added downward pressure on oil prices, as the US government's policies also exacerbated the market's tense atmosphere. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the United States and China have raised concerns about slowing global growth and weak energy demand, and oil prices are close to a four-year low.

WTI crude oil is currently trading around $58.70 per barrel. From a technical perspective, the daily chart of U.S. crude oil shows that oil prices are currently trading near the key support level of $57.00. This position is an important technical support area since 2021. If it falls below this point, it may further fall to $56.79 {Tuesday's low}, or even lower $55.14 {early week low}, and $55.00 {integer mark} area. If it breaks, it will move towards the low of $54.78 in more than 4 years. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator has approached the oversold zone {36.50}. There is a possibility of a technical rebound in the short term, but the overall trend is still bearish. If it can effectively break through the $58.83 level {23.6% Fibonacci rebound level from $71.98 to $54.78}, the next level will point to $59.64 {9-day moving average}, and $60.00 {market psychological barrier}, and the market needs to be alert to the risk of continued downward movement.

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil around 58.50, stop loss: 58.30; target: 59.90; 60.20

Spot gold

Gold rose more than 2.90% on Tuesday to a high of $3,435 per ounce, reaching its highest level in more than two weeks, paring some of its strong intraday gains and currently trading around $3,430, rising for the second consecutive day. President Trump's new tariff threats have stimulated demand for safe-haven assets. Trump opened a new front in the trade war on Sunday, saying that foreign-made films will face a 100% tariff. The US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, even though President Trump has been urging Fed Chairman Powell to cut rates. Apart from this, signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China acted as a headwind for the precious metal as traders chose to wait and see ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting. US President Trump’s erratic trade policies have made investors nervous as the risk of a key central bank event approaches.

From a technical perspective, the strong intraday gains have taken gold prices above the resistance level of $3,353 {April 28 high}. This, along with the positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the path of least resistance for gold prices remains to the upside. Further buying above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 2956.80 to 3,500.10, around the $3,371 area, will confirm the positive bias and push gold prices to the next relevant resistance level of $3,450. The subsequent gains should allow bulls to make another attempt to conquer the psychological $3,500 mark. On the other hand, the $3,400 area now seems to protect the immediate downside before $3,371 {23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 2956.80 to 3,500.10}. Next is the round mark of $3,300, which, if decisively broken, may trigger some technical selling and drag gold prices to $33,290 (May 1 high) and $3,292.50 {38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 2956.80 to 3,500.10} area.

Consider going long gold before 3,427 today, stop loss: 3,422; target: 3,450; 3,455

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is retreating from the five-month high of 0.6501 reached on Monday, slipping to 0.6450 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The decline was due to the dollar's strength ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Although the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors' attention remains on Chairman Powell's speech, especially against the backdrop of tariff-related uncertainty and increasing pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates. On the Australian side, the Australian dollar was supported by the successful victory of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a second three-year term in the 2025 federal election, marking a significant development in Saturday's election results. Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has raised its year-end AUD/USD forecast to 0.7000, citing the continued bear market in the US dollar. NAB expects the pair to remain around 0.6500 in the middle of the year, gradually rising to 0.6700 in December.

The AUD/USD pair is sending an overall bullish signal, trading around 0.6500 and currently located in the middle range between 0.6400 {round mark} and 0.6501 {same second high}. The technical indicators of the daily chart, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 63.32, indicating neutral to strong momentum, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) sends a buy signal. The stochastic %K is 78.67 and the strong oscillator is 0.01, both indicating neutral momentum at present. Key moving averages continue to support the bullish outlook: 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages all send buy signals. Therefore, short-term support levels are 0.6400 {round mark}, 6369 {20-day simple moving average}, and 0.6300 {market psychological mark}. Resistance levels are at the key psychological mark of 0.6500, and the 0.6528 area of ​​the high of November 29, 2024. The second is the 0.6688 {November 8, 2024 high} level.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6480, stop loss: 0.6465, target: 0.6520, 0.6530

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, GBP/USD jumped to nearly 1.3370 during the European trading session. The pair strengthened as the dollar weakened, and investors awaited the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision to be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is almost certain to keep its borrowing rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This will be the third consecutive policy meeting where the central bank has kept interest rates unchanged. Investors are also watching the central bank's updated economic forecasts, which may indicate whether further rate cuts are possible. Some analysts believe that the Bank of England may favor a more aggressive easing path given the heightened global risks, especially those related to President Trump's new tariffs. However, the UK is considered relatively immune to US tariffs compared to regions such as China or the European Union, as the US has a $12 billion surplus in goods exports to the UK in 2024.

GBP/USD re-entered the upper 1.3300 level after ending a four-day losing streak that dragged the pair down by 1.37% at the beginning of the week. Despite slowing down the downside momentum in the short term, the bullish potential remains limited with technical oscillators in a slow mid-range. The pair looks ready for a slow correction after rebounding from the 200-day SMA near 1.2810 to a high of 1.3445 in early April. The pair is consolidating near last week’s lows, although it is hovering above the 9-day SMA near 1.3340. If the bulls want to continue to dominate the market, they need to close above 1.34 to challenge the year-high of 1.3445 and further point to the 1.35 mark. If the sellers step in and drag the exchange rate below the 1.3300 mark, it could pave the way for a drop to the 20-day SMA at 1.3255 and then test 1.3200.

Today, we recommend going long on GBP before 1.3350, stop loss: 1.3340, target: 1.3400, 1.3420

USD/JPY

The yen appreciated to around 142.35 yen per dollar against the dollar on Tuesday, rising for the third consecutive trading day. The yen has reversed its losses, mainly affected by the dovish pause of the Bank of Japan last Thursday. The dollar is under pressure from global trade uncertainties. U.S. President Donald Trump said there are no plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, although he hinted at a possible reduction in the current 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, adding nuance to the tense trade backdrop. In addition, a series of supporting factors suggest that the yen's last resistance path remains upward. Investors are also watching the results of the recent U.S.-Japan bilateral trade talks, with Tokyo hoping to finalize a deal by June. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% last week as expected. However, the central bank lowered its growth and inflation forecasts, reinforcing market expectations that there will not be any rate hikes for now. Trading volumes are expected to be light on Tuesday due to a public holiday in Japan.

At the beginning of this week, USD/JPY was trading below 143 as investors sought safety and bought the yen and sold the dollar. Currently, USD/JPY is trading below 143. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains biased to the downside, making new lows for the third consecutive trading day. However, it found resistance at the 30-day simple moving average of 145.12, and 145.00 {Monday's high}, before buyers pushed the pair above the base line of 145.92 {Friday's high}. While this could pave the way for a rebound, a daily close above 144.00 is needed if bulls want to test higher prices. Otherwise, if sellers push USD/JPY below 143.00, it will clear the path to test the April 29 swing low of 141.97. If broken, the next target will be the year-to-date low of 139.89.

Today, we recommend shorting the US dollar before 142.70, stop loss: 142.90; target: 141.60, 141.40

EUR/USD

EUR/USD reversed the trend of the 1.1280-1.1275 area in the Asian session on Tuesday and climbed to a new 1.1381 day high, despite the lack of strong follow-through buying. The spot price remains confined to a multi-day trading range, close to the three-week low hit last Thursday, and traders choose to wait and see before the key FOMC decision. With key central bank event risks approaching, the upbeat US employment data on Friday and the US ISM services PMI released on Monday eased market concerns about recession. This in turn helped limit the dollar's downside and formed resistance for the EUR/USD pair. However, the increasing economic uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump's rapidly changing stance on trade policy has kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive.

EUR/USD is stuck in a short-term volatility dilemma between 1.1425{short-term double top} and 1.1241{25-day simple moving average}. From a recent technical point of view, EUR/USD continues to send overall bullish signals. The 14-day relative strength index of the daily chart is close to 58, showing moderate momentum without overbought conditions. Moving average convergence/divergence sends a sell signal, which slows down bullish expectations in the short term. These readings highlight that short-term momentum may pause, although they do not reverse the broader trend. Therefore, the support level is 1.1300{round mark}, and if it breaks, it will continue to test the 1.1223{last Thursday's low}, 1.1200{round mark} area level. The resistance level is 1.1400{round mark}, and breaking through this area may lead to further upward movement to the 1.1473{April 11 high} area. If the resistance level is continuously broken, it may further rise to the 1.1500 mark.

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.1355, stop loss: 1.1345, target: 1.1400, 1.1420.

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